NWS Doppler Radar

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

001 
WTNT42 KNHC 132035
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122025
500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025
 
A mid- to upper-level low to the west of Lorenzo is producing strong 
west-southwesterly shear, causing the low-level center to be mostly 
exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection.  The 
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data 
and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB.  The scatterometer data 
is also the basis for the initial 34-kt wind radii, which shows the 
tropical-storm-force winds mostly limited to the eastern half of the 
storm.
 
Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 10 kt, and that motion should 
continue for about another day.  However, by late Tuesday, a turn to 
the north is forecast as a weakness develops in the subtropical 
ridge over the central Atlantic.  The storm is then expected to turn 
northeastward later in the week as a large-scale mid- to upper-level 
trough approaches from the west.  Most of the models show this 
trough cutting off, causing Lorenzo to slow down and turn eastward 
or southeastward over the weekend.  The NHC track forecast is 
generally similar to the previous one and on the right side of the 
guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA. Regardless of the 
details, Lorenzo is not expected to be near land during the next 
several days.
 
The strong shear over Lorenzo is likely to let up during the next 
few days, but the models also show some dry air entraining into the 
circulation.  In fact, some of the global models show Lorenzo 
remaining lopsided and even opening up into a trough.  The NHC 
intensity forecast shows some strengthening, but this is of low 
confidence as there is some possibility that Lorenzo succumbs to 
the unfavorable environmental conditions.  This prediction is a 
little lower than the previous one, but remains near the high end 
of the model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.2N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.2N  43.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 17.8N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 20.0N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 22.6N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 25.3N  41.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 28.2N  38.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 31.4N  31.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 30.1N  29.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 3