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South Florida Spearfishing Club
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 20:36:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 21:29:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023000 WTNT43 KNHC 292035 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Strong northwesterly shear has caused the low-level center of Rina to become completely exposed today. The overall convective structure of the storm has deteriorated as well, with only small bursts of deep convection observed in satellite images well downshear of its center. An earlier scatterometer pass did not sample the core of the system, but still showed 30-35 kt winds well removed from the center in the southeast quadrant. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-45 kt, and the initial intensity is conservatively held at 40 kt this afternoon. A full scatterometer pass should be available this evening to better assess the current intensity of Rina. The tropical cyclone has turned northwestward and is accelerating, with an initial motion of 320/8 kt. This general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during couple of days while Rina moves around the northeastern periphery of the broader circulation associated with Tropical Storm Philippe. Thereafter, the shallow cyclone is forecast to separate from Philippe and turn north-northwestward between a subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching frontal system over the western Atlantic. There is still large spread in the track guidance regarding the extent and speed of this turn, with the GFS still on the western edge of the guidance. With this uncertainty in mind, the updated NHC forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The strong wind shear currently affecting Rina is unlikely to relent during the next couple of days. So despite warm SSTs along its path, Rina seems unlikely to sustain a more organized convective structure going forward, which is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global models. The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening during the next several days, following the latest multi-model intensity consensus aids. By 96 h, Rina is forecast to open into a trough and/or merge with a frontal system. But if the center remains decoupled from the convection, it is possible that Rina degenerates into a remnant low even sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 20.0N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.5N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 22.8N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.4N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 25.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster B. Reinhart/A. Reinhart
Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 6 -
Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023000 FONT13 KNHC 292034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER B. REINHART/A. REINHARTTropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Spearviews
Spearviews
SpearViews FII Level 1 Freediving Course
- Sunday, 28 March 2010 18:32Over the weekend of March 27 th & 28 th I took the Level 1 Freediving course offered by FII (Freediving Instructors International) at their Headquarters in Pompano Beach FL. FII was started by Martin Stepanek, a multiple time freediving world record holder. The Level 1 curriculum is taught over a 2 day course. The first day is classroom and pool based and spans almost 9 hours. This course is designed for beginning freedivers and is supposed to get novice divers to a depth of 66 feet.
SpearViews 4th Annual Blue Wild - June 5-6, 2010
- Monday, 07 June 2010 08:53This past weekend, I finally got to go to The Blue Wild dive expo. After 3 years of everybody telling me about it and not being around to get to go to it, the stars finally aligned and I was able to check it out. Unfortunately, it meant missing out on 5-10mph winds and less than 1' seas inside the reef, but there were other reasons I couldn't get out this weekend, so I figured I would take advantage to check it out and possibly win something from the raffle to boot (I won't keep you in...
SpearViews Oculus R5 GoPro Flat Lens Case
- Sunday, 12 February 2012 23:29{sigplus link=oculusr5 index=1} {/sigplus}Hot on the heels of my review of the GoPro Hero2, I felt I would be remiss if I didn't follow up with a review of the case that resolves the one (and only one in my opinion) flaw in the Hero2 design, it's underwater focus (or lack thereof) flaw. You see, as I wrote about in the Hero2 review the curved lens on the stock case creates a focus fallacy when shooting underwater. It's fairly common knowledge now, so if you want to read about it, you can check...
SpearViews FreeDivers USA Spring Steel Euro Shaft
- Monday, 26 July 2010 15:11This year at The Blue Wild I was fortunate enough to meet Mike Hickey. I know of Mike from his appearances on Speargun Hunter on the Outdoor Channel with Sheri Daye. Mike was orginally a guest on the show and in later seasons participated as an underwater videographer. Mike is the USA distributor for FreeDivers ( FreeDivers USA ) spearfishing equipment. I came across his booth and after a great conversation about spearfishing, we started discussing the rising cost of spearshafts specifically....
SpearViews In the beginning...
- Saturday, 30 January 2010 08:16Throughout my relatively short history in spearfishing (as of this writing), I have only used a few different spearguns. Now obviously, my opinion in this matter is not one of extreme trial and error. Mostly it consists of recommendations made to me by those I spearfish with along with some of my own common sense. In the beginning (early 1990's), I used one of my brother-in-law's extra guns. Specifically, a 38" Arbalette. Now this gun had already seen finer days by the time I started using it....
SpearViews Omer Zero Cubed Freediving Mask
- Saturday, 28 September 2013 18:22The summer had been busier than I would have liked this year and I honestly hadn't had as many opportunities to post much less given much thought to writing a new SpearView, but after having time to really reconsider, I realized that I had actually had multiple opportunities to try out new equipment this year (not all of it successfully). Further to that point, when I took the PFI Freediver course back in March I had decided to invest in a new mask and ended up deciding on the Omer Zero Cubed...
Spearblogs
Spearblogs
SpearBlog 2005 August 27-28, 2005
- Monday, 29 August 2005 15:07For those of you that don't pay attention to the news, thanks to hurricane Katrina and her constant refusal to abide by the National Hurricane Center's predictions, this weekend was not one to be anywhere in the keys. While the keys were initially supposed to be spared the onslaught of even a category 1 hurricane's fury, the keys like the rest of South Florida lay right along her persistent path. Our hearts and prayers are with those who are along this monster storm's latest path in New...
SpearBlog 2005 June 30-July 10, 2005
- Monday, 11 July 2005 15:05Well, thanks to Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Dennis, my vacation this year pretty much sucked! Not only did the weather not cooperate, but I also had a congested ear which kept me from diving 2 of those few days that were actually worthwhile. Basically, the only day we shot anything worth mentioning, was the day they announced the mandatory evacuations for visitors. I won't even mention the actual conditions, because they were abysmal. The winds were kicking about 10-20 (depending on the...
SpearBlog 2014 June 7-8, 2014 - Clean, clear, calm water everywhere... (oh yeah and groupers too!)
- Monday, 09 June 2014 13:28Wind Seas Viz Temp ESE 5mph 1-2' 40' 81F This past week started out looking very bleak. Storms rolled through the middle keys pretty much all day Monday and Tuesday with torrential downpours and winds in excess of 30mph. It was so bad in fact that people that had intended to stay the week decided to head for home and see how the week progressed from a distance. Between the wind that had picked up last weekend and the horrible weather at the opening of the week we pretty much thought that the...
SpearBlog 2014 Dec 27, 2014 - Bimini Day Trip Success! (with a visit from the taxman)
- Wednesday, 31 December 2014 10:14The text from my friend Carlos Casal comes in the day after Christmas with two simple words... "Bimini Saturday?" (there may have been more words, but those stood out) and all of a sudden I feel like it's Christmas all over again. That nervous anxiety that comes over you when you know the present you're getting, but you can't open until Christmas morning grabbed hold of me from that moment. I've never had the opportunity to head over to Bimini with the sole intention of spearfishing for the...
SpearBlog 2005 July 27-28, 2005 - Lobster Mini-Season
- Thursday, 28 July 2005 15:05Winds: 0-5 Seas: Less than 1 foot Surf Temp: 87F (about 15f colder in the thermalcline) Viz: Varying from 6-25 feet Well, it's happened again... I went diving for lobster during mini season in Miami and have lost about 95% of my hearing in my right ear. Let's see how long it lasts this time (last time in 1999 it lasted about 2 weeks). I definitely won't be going out this weekend, so I guess its a honeydew weekend (Honey, do this, Honey do that :). I hope anyone that gets to go out bags their...
SpearBlog 2010 Foreword 2010
- Wednesday, 20 January 2010 14:06Well, another year has come and gone. Some changes have been implemented for us spearfishermen this year, not the least of which is the closing of all shallow water grouper from Jan 19, 2010 through April 30, 2010. If you want to read more about the reasons behind the closing, check out this article . In future years, the closing is scheduled to begin Jan 1 (instead of 19th like this year). The closing includes pretty much every grouper species with the only exceptions being the Snowy, Warsaw...
