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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 20:36:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 21:29:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023000 WTNT43 KNHC 292035 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Strong northwesterly shear has caused the low-level center of Rina to become completely exposed today. The overall convective structure of the storm has deteriorated as well, with only small bursts of deep convection observed in satellite images well downshear of its center. An earlier scatterometer pass did not sample the core of the system, but still showed 30-35 kt winds well removed from the center in the southeast quadrant. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-45 kt, and the initial intensity is conservatively held at 40 kt this afternoon. A full scatterometer pass should be available this evening to better assess the current intensity of Rina. The tropical cyclone has turned northwestward and is accelerating, with an initial motion of 320/8 kt. This general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during couple of days while Rina moves around the northeastern periphery of the broader circulation associated with Tropical Storm Philippe. Thereafter, the shallow cyclone is forecast to separate from Philippe and turn north-northwestward between a subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching frontal system over the western Atlantic. There is still large spread in the track guidance regarding the extent and speed of this turn, with the GFS still on the western edge of the guidance. With this uncertainty in mind, the updated NHC forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The strong wind shear currently affecting Rina is unlikely to relent during the next couple of days. So despite warm SSTs along its path, Rina seems unlikely to sustain a more organized convective structure going forward, which is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global models. The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening during the next several days, following the latest multi-model intensity consensus aids. By 96 h, Rina is forecast to open into a trough and/or merge with a frontal system. But if the center remains decoupled from the convection, it is possible that Rina degenerates into a remnant low even sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 20.0N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.5N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 22.8N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.4N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 25.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster B. Reinhart/A. Reinhart
Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 6 -
Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023000 FONT13 KNHC 292034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER B. REINHART/A. REINHARTTropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Spearviews
Spearviews
SpearViews March 2009 - Euro 120 Reel
- Saturday, 30 January 2010 08:23It didn't take me long to finish rigging up the 120 with a new reel and 2.2mm dyneema line. Unfortunately as of now (Apr 2009), I haven't had an opportunity to get into the blue water to put this new toy through its paces. I am definitely jones'ing to give it a try! I am also working on making my own flashers for use in blue water. I have been watching these being used on a few spearfishing shows and their reasoning seems sound for their success. They didn't seem too hard to make, so I decided...
SpearViews GoPro Hero2
- Wednesday, 08 February 2012 16:32{sigplus link=goprohero2 index=1} {/sigplus}I finally jumped on the HD bandwagon and bought myself a Hero2 HD digital camera by GoPro. These little beauties have been around for quite a while now so hearing about them isn't exactly news. But since I finally got around to purchasing one for myself and it happens to be that the Hero2 is the biggest leap in performance that they've given these cameras since their launch, I figured I would put in my 2 cents worth.
SpearViews September 2008 - New Euro 120
- Saturday, 30 January 2010 08:18I finally bit the bullet and decided to sell my No-Ka-Oi. It had gotten next to no use in the time I had owned it and it seemed a shame to have it just sit there so I Ebay'd it. With the funds from that sale, I invested in a gun that is a little more multi-purpose (at least that is how I convinced myself to get it :). I was extremely torn among 3 choices. I was considering the Euro 120, 120x and 130. After a couple of weeks of deliberation and a lot of flip-flopping, I decided on the Euro 120....
SpearViews 4th Annual Blue Wild - June 5-6, 2010
- Monday, 07 June 2010 08:53This past weekend, I finally got to go to The Blue Wild dive expo. After 3 years of everybody telling me about it and not being around to get to go to it, the stars finally aligned and I was able to check it out. Unfortunately, it meant missing out on 5-10mph winds and less than 1' seas inside the reef, but there were other reasons I couldn't get out this weekend, so I figured I would take advantage to check it out and possibly win something from the raffle to boot (I won't keep you in...
SpearViews Oculus R5 GoPro Flat Lens Case
- Sunday, 12 February 2012 23:29{sigplus link=oculusr5 index=1} {/sigplus}Hot on the heels of my review of the GoPro Hero2, I felt I would be remiss if I didn't follow up with a review of the case that resolves the one (and only one in my opinion) flaw in the Hero2 design, it's underwater focus (or lack thereof) flaw. You see, as I wrote about in the Hero2 review the curved lens on the stock case creates a focus fallacy when shooting underwater. It's fairly common knowledge now, so if you want to read about it, you can check...
SpearViews Hawaiian Sling by HawaiianSling.net
- Thursday, 23 June 2011 16:49Over the 4th of July holiday I was able to break in my hawaiian sling made by HawaiianSling.net (Ray Uppstrom). I had purchased this quite some time ago in preparation for a trip to the Bahamas and I finally got to try it out in the waters around Cat Cay, South Bimini. This isn't your normal hawaiian sling. The design is completely unique and interesting in its approach compared to traditional slings. This sling is much more akin to a bow and arrow than it is to a regular sling and it looks...
Spearblogs
Spearblogs
SpearBlog 2008 August 2-4, 2008
- Tuesday, 05 August 2008 01:16Winds: 10-15 SE Seas: 2-4 feet (sloppy) Surf Temp: +/- 80F Viz: 25-60 feet Saturday was pretty much a wash for me due to the fact that I had to pull an all nighter on Friday and didn't get to show up on Saturday until about 3:30 in the afternoon. But after downing 6 or 7 beers and laying down early to get a full night's rest that night, I hoped Sunday was the beginning of a better weekend. Unfortunately, I was wrong, my brother-in-law was sick with a flu so it made it a little hard to get him...
SpearBlog 2009 August 15-16, 2009
- Monday, 17 August 2009 01:00Seas: 3-8 feet Winds: 10-35 SSE Temp: ?? F Viz: ?? feet Thanks to the system that would become TD4 this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico, the weather turned to crap mid morning Saturday and got progressively worse throughout the day and into the night. We did get one break in the weather around 3:30p and headed out to see how badly the viz had gotten. Drifting with the tide and with minimal viz of only about 8 feet we were actually still able to shoot a few hogs and pick up 5 bugs too in about an...
SpearBlog 2011 June 18-19, 2011 - Monster snappers!
- Monday, 20 June 2011 16:22Seas: 1-4 feet Winds: 10-15 S/SE Viz: 25-30 feet Temp: 84 F After last weekend and the good luck we had with finding the large mangroves, we decided early on that this weekend we would focus on doing more of the same as we talked during the week. We also knew that we only had Saturday to fish since Sunday was Father's Day and even us dads have dads, so we knew most everyone needed to depart early Sunday to spend time wth family. With only one day to dive, I was hoping to arrive early on Friday...
SpearBlog 2007 July 14-15, 2007
- Monday, 16 July 2007 01:28Winds: SE 5 Seas: 1-2 ft Surf Temp: 86 F Viz: 20-25 ft We had some very good weather this weekend (although the lack of wind does tend to make it extremely hot). We were able to easily head out for some diving and spearfishing without getting tossed around too much. Unfortunately we weren't seeing the same size mangroves that we were running into last weekend. That, and upon cleaning our catch from the first day, we noticed that a lot of the fish were no longer carrying roe. As long as they...
SpearBlog 2010 July 10-11, 2010 - The end of the drought
- Monday, 12 July 2010 19:22Seas: 1 foot Winds: 5-10 W/SW Viz: 25-40 feet Temp: 83F This past weekend was great and horrible all at the same time. The winds were so calm that there were hardly any seas to speak of but the lack of any wind at all coupled with the extreme heat made it brutally hot when you weren't moving in a vehicle or in the water. Luckily for me, I try to spend as much time as possible in the latter. This weekend started out like any other so far this summer when the seas have let us fish. We wake up...
SpearBlog 2006 August 26-27, 2006
- Monday, 28 August 2006 15:15Unbenknownst to us, this would be our final weekend in the keys for this summer! Saturday allowed us to pick up quite a few bugs to stock our freezers, and it was a good thing too, because Hurricane (at least it was at that time) Ernesto had other things in mind for us. Once we got back from gathering yet a few more bugs on Sunday, we got the word about Hurricane Ernesto. After the two storms we experienced last year we decided to turn tail and get the heck out of Dodge. We made the decision...
